Viral Content (14/03/2020)

I want you all to know that I’m extremely proud of that title.

You probably don’t need me to explain the impetus behind this post (in the unlikely case that you do, I’m afraid I have some bad news). Some percentage of my small readership is probably hunkering down in self-isolation and more are likely to do so in the next few weeks as the COVID-19 pandemic grows in severity. In these troubled times, I figured people could use some high quality blog content to entertain and inform. This is going to be a random collection of opinion, observation and commentary with a firmly non-alarmist mindset.

A quick disclaimer before we begin: I am not a medical expert or a scientist. I do have a biotechnology degree that included fairly in-depth modules on virology (they’re useful for a lot of things in the biotech field), and I did a project on the 2009 swine flu pandemic that involved studying historical viral outbreaks. I think it’s fair to say I know more about the topic than your average rando.

…But I also barely squeaked through that degree with a pass, and I don’t work actively in any scientific field. So, again: not an expert.

My personal experience

That swine flu project I mentioned involved reading some frankly terrifying articles by epidemiologists on the likelihood of a major pandemic in the near future (short version: 100%). This led to a personal interest in the topic, which has involved keeping an eye on any reports of new viruses popping up. I’m not filling up a big atlas with red pins or huddled over a HAM radio listening in on government frequencies, but whenever I hear about a novel viral outbreak I tense up a bit and wonder: is this the “big one” that experts have been warning us about?

I heard about the coronavirus for the first time in January and watched as it took hold in China with a growing sense of unease; before the media had even really latched onto the topic, I was halfway through writing a blog post warning people about the threat of a pandemic, before deciding at the last minute that I was being too dramatic. I did start posting on the multiple sub-reddits devoted to the topic, trying to correct the flood of misinformation, panic and conspiracy theorizing that was rapidly taking off. Eventually this proved to be too time-consuming and exhuasting ( don’t read the comments on r/coronavirus; no one there has any idea what they’re talking about), but I also stopped for another reason: for about three weeks in February, it really looked like the virus had been successfully contained within China. The world, it seemed, had dodged a bullet.

You know the start of 28 Days Later, when Cillian Murphy wakes up from a coma and discovers that the UK has been decimated by rage zombies? I was in the hospital and doped up on pain medication (nothing serious) when the first epidemics outside of China started in earnest. I came out of my drug-induced haze and started paying attention to international news again to discover that the virus was spreading in Japan and South Korea and the first infections of unknown origin—a major red flag—were being reported in multiple countries.

So here we are in the middle of March! After low-key mentally preparing for a major pandemic for years, seeing it actually happen is kind of surreal, like hearing that an alien invasion has started. For people who never even suspected that such a thing would happen in their lifetimes, I can’t imagine how this must all feel.

How’s everyone doing? Have you stocked up on toilet paper? Don’t stock up on toilet paper, there’s no need. Let’s have a quick FAQ to clear up some misconceptions.

FAQ

Is this worse than the flu?

Yes.

How much worse?

This is harder to determine than you might think, because we don’t actually know how many people have been infected; most cases will involve mild symptoms or even no symptoms at all and therefore aren’t detected. This paper published by the lancet a few days ago is estimating a global mortality rate of over 5%, which is many orders of magnitude higher than for seasonal flu.

But again, these are estimates and the data simply isn’t available. How many people a virus kills depends on a lot of factors, which is why different countries have different mortality rates. Instead of stressing over exact figures, just keep in mind that this is a serious illness.

Who’s most at risk?

The data has been pretty clear on this: the older you are, the more likely you are to die. The last average age of victims I saw was 81. Having underlying health conditions also increases your chance of dying, regardless of what age you are.

But don’t get complacent just because you’re young and healthy. The virus has been killing younger people, some in their 20s, with no apparent underlying conditions. And even some of the “mild” cases needed mechanical ventilation to survive. If at all possible, you want to avoid getting this disease in the first place (just an FYI for Boris “herd immunity” Johnson if he happens to be reading this).

How do I do that?

Wash your hands frequently, avoid touching your face and stay away from large crowds or people who might be sick.

Does that mean I should stop going to shopping centres and monster truck rallies?

Yes. And restaurants, cinemas, pubs and anywhere else where you’ll be in contact with lots of strangers. If you need to buy groceries or other necessities then by all means do so, but limit the amount of time you’re spending outside.

Really? Isn’t that kind of extreme?

This is an extreme situation.

That doesn’t seem like it’s good for the economy.

You know what’s also not good for the economy? Millions of people dying.

Was the virus accidentally released from a lab in China?

No.

But someone on facebook told me that—

They’re wrong.

No but hear me out, there’s a virology lab in Wuhan and—

Look, go read a book or something if you’re bored.

Should I wear a mask?

I’m not qualified to comment on that. I’ve been seeing different medical experts weigh in on this and coming to wildly different conclusions. What I will say is that unless you somehow already have a ready supply of medical-grade face masks, trying to bulk-buy them now is probably a bad idea. Medical professionals need them more.

Should I stockpile food?

Depends on why you’re doing it. Even in the quarantined Chinese cities, the delivery of food to shops hasn’t ceased. It’s not looking likely that food shortages are going to be an issue in most countries.

That said, going out to buy food inevitably increases your risk of exposure. It’s not a bad idea to stock up now, before things really take off, in case you need to stay inside for a prolonged period. Just don’t start panic-buying anything that isn’t nailed down, that will cause shortages.

This will all be over in like two weeks, right?

No.

Two months?

Also no.

So how long…?

I can’t answer that, but you should probably assume it’s going to be a while.

But a vaccine—

Is between 12 and 18 months away. It will prevent future outbreaks, but isn’t going to stop this one.

I heard hot weather kills the virus! Once summer rolls around, it will magically vanish.

Based on current information, this appears to not be true.

What if the virus mutates? How long does it last on surfaces? I heard it can survive in the air for thirty minutes! I saw a graph online estimating that it’s going to kill like fifty billion people. What if I walked past someone who has it? What if I’m ALREADY INFECTED OH GOD

Okay, slow down there. There are a lot of things about this situation that no one has any control over; whether or not you’ll get the virus is going to be partially down to chance. Focus on the things you can actually control: washing your hands, not touching your face and staying away from places where you could be infected.

So should I just lock myself in my house and not go outside until the outbreak dies down?

…I mean, if you actually have the capability to do that safely then it’s not a bad idea.

Wait, really?

I don’t know what kind of life you’re living where you can vanish from society for months or why you have enough food on hand to make that feasible, but knock yourself out.

Is this the “big one”? Is it going to be like that movie Contagion?

Hey, a call-back to earlier! No and no. As pandemics go, so far we’re actually getting off pretty lightly. As serious as the situation is, it could have been far worse. The infamous Spanish Flu pandemic was far more lethal.

Contagion is a good movie and quite an accurate depiction of what a truly monumental pandemic would look like. You, uh, probably shouldn’t watch it if you’re feeling anxious about this one.

On the ground

I hope that FAQ was informative. Again, I am not an expert and you should follow information put out by your local health services, but if anyone else has further questions (that guy was kind of over the top, right?) then feel free to ask in the comments and I’ll do my best.

Turning to a broad overview at the current situation, it’s looking…well, that depends on where you live. China’s outbreak appears to be slowing dramatically and other south-east Asian contries like Singapore and South Korea, which had lots of time to prepare while the virus percolated in China, are handling it effectively. Unfortunately, the same is not true of the rest of the world.

The World Health Organzation now considers Europe to be the epicenter of the pandemic, with affected countries expected to follow the trajectory of Italy within weeks. How well they’re going to cope with it varies; France and Spain have announced extreme measures, effectively deciding to pre-emptively copy Italy’s lockdown before the virus can spread too far. The UK, by contrast, is proposing a bizarre strategy of relying on herd immunity to slow the outbreak: basically, letting a large initial surge of people get infected and acquire immunity.

This is ridiculous for a lot of reasons (we don’t even know how acquired immunity for COVID-19 works; there’s evidence that at least some people don’t gain immunity and can be re-infected), but chief among them is Britain’s healthcare system, which often operates under severe strain even in normal circumstances. How it’s supposed to handle an unmanaged crisis isn’t clear. I strongly suspect that this idea will be quietly scrapped in favour of following the Italian approach, but if it does go ahead then it raises questions about what’s going to happen over here in Ireland. Will the North use the same approach as the rest of the UK? The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is effectively non-existant; unless it’s closed and travel is severely restricted—something not done since the end of the Troubles and which would likely have severe political ramifications—then the Republic would functionally be forced to play along with the UK’s follie.

Speaking of Ireland, you could best describe the situation here as the calm before the storm. The exact strategy the government is going to use isn’t clear just yet, but it’s looking like we’re going to follow Spain and France’s approach before too long. The reaction among the populace seems to be polarizing along too extremes: either not taking it seriously at all, or panic-buying food due to rumours of an imminent military-enforced shut-down of the country (which probably weren’t accurate several days ago, but as stated might be closer to reality now). I have been extremely disappointed to hear of incidents of racism and xenophobia directed at our large Chinese (and other south-east Asian, because of course racists are going after anyone who “looks” Chinese) population, which includes many people born and raised here. Hospitals are also reporting widespread theft of medical supplies. Nice going, people.

One thing I’ve noticed personally is a dramatic decline in people leaving their homes. At first I thought I was imagining it—my town isn’t really quieter than usual, I’m just being paranoid—but then Saturday night rolled around and there was no doubt; the main street was practically empty. There’s a palpable tension in the air, particularly at night.

But to be honest, my main concern isn’t even for Ireland. No, I’m most worried about the United States, which due to a multitude of factors ranging from its healthcare system to its sparse social safety net to even its attitude to sick leave has made it prime ground for a health-related catastrophe. Testing for the virus has been remarkably slow to get going compared to other countries, and the president…is being as Donald Trump as usual, let’s just leave it at that.

I don’t want to scare any of my American readers, but I really do feel like the country is a time bomb waiting to go off. Make sure you follow the guidelines around personal disease prevention and take whatever reasonable precautions you can. Do it now, before the situation gets worse. If the experiences of other countries have taught us anything, it’s that when things start moving with this virus, they move fast.

I plan on writing a (much shorter) post weekly going forward, commenting on the progress of the pandemic, for as long as the situation remains serious. Hopefully, this will be a short series. Until then, everyone stay safe and remember to wash your hands.