Viral Content (10/04/2020): Peaks and Waves

This is going to be another quick one. I’m currently working on the second post about Docile, but it’s going to take a while due to migraines so I’m throwing this up in the meantime. In today’s viral blog post, I want to briefly look at the progression of the pandemic, point out reasons to be optimistic and also warn people not to get complacent.

If you’ve been keeping a close eye on the news lately, it seems we’re approaching—or have maybe already passed—the global peak in the pandemic, this being roughly the highest number of infections and/or deaths depending on what metric you’re using (and therefore the point at which the healthcare system is most likely to be overwhelmed). This is kind of an imaginery concept, because obviously different countries are experiencing outbreaks at different rates and there are some places where the virus is still very much on the upswing even as it wanes elsewhere.

However, I’m going to offer some advice that people maybe won’t want to hear, which is to avoid putting too much stock in news about declining rates of deaths and infections. Up until three days ago, the data coming from New York appeared quite optimistic…except this was mostly because non-hospital deaths weren’t being counted. The inaccuracy of the statistics are now being exposed via the practical impact of New York’s outbreak, namely a daily mortality rate of nearly 800 and the use of mass graves.

Statistics are slippery customers, because they only give us an incomplete view of what’s really happening and they’re usually only relevant over longer timescales. The media has taken to putting a lot of stock in daily numbers, which has led to some whiplash as our view of the situation changes dramatically; for example, after several days of declining infections and deaths Spain saw a sudden and sharp increase. What does this mean? Is the outbreak accelerating again? Have they not reached their peak?

The answer is that we don’t know, because four days of data doesn’t actually tell us much. Those declines and increases could be indicating something relevant, or they could be random statistical fluctuations. The number of reported infections is also limited by testing capacity, which is why the rate of infections in many countries appears to be a straight line: any new infections above the healthcare system’s ability to test either aren’t going to be included or will only be represented in the numbers on following days.

But despite all of that, there are undeniably reasons to be optimistic. Several of the most severe outbreaks are showing concrete signs of waning, while some countries seem to have escaped large-scale outbreaks completely. We now know what a covid-19 outbreak looks like, what kinds of measures need to be taken to prevent it and roughly how severe it can get. With the proper counter-measures, the virus’ impact isn’t as devestating as many previous pandemics have been. This is all good news.

…And speaking of mood whiplash, here’s where I get pessimistic again. That global peak I talked about earlier? I might still be a ways off.

The thing people need to realize is that the virus isn’t going to go away on its own. After the global outbreaks decline, the restrictons and quarantines are lifted and we all emerge from our hermit bunkers, the virus will still be circulating within the population. This will be the case even if there are no major outbreaks happening anywhere in the world. Research is ongoing as to how many infected people gain full immunity, but even if they all do then not enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity. Not even close.

So we’re not going to reach a point next month or the month after—or even by the end of the year—where we can all breathe a sigh of relief and move on. There is a very real possibility of a second wave that’s as severe or even worse than the first one. There is historical precedent for this; the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic came in several waves, of which the second was the most deadly. Even if there isn’t a second wave, the risk of localized outbreaks and individual infections will remain.

I’m saying all this not to scare people but to set expectations. Many governments are facing huge economic pressure to lift restrictons and will probably be quick to urge people to go back to normal life as fast as possible. Don’t fall for it. Stay vigilant and keep a close eye on the news. Don’t be too quick to start planning international travel or attending events that involve large crowds. The only thing that’s going to completely stop the pandemic in its tracks is the development, manufacture and widespread distribution of a vaccine, and that’s almost certainly well over a year away.

When the quarantines are lifted, take it as an oppurtunity to prepare. If there’s anything you wish you had done before the pandemic started, this will be your chance to do it before the next wave hits. Buy whatever supplies you think you might need, make a plan, and decide when you’re going to act on it. Now you know the warning signs, so watch for them and take the appropriate measures when you see them.